After denying it for months, Goldman Sachs alumnus cum Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin is finally admitting that their proposed tax reform will give tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans and–horror of horrors, threat of all threats–“a failure to pass such legislation could meaningfully hurt stocks”. (Look Steve, stocks are due for a thumping, no matter what you self-proclaimed wizards push through). In a recent interview on the “Politico Money” podcast, he also offered an “absolute guarantee” that Trump will sign a tax bill before year’s end…
Bernie Sanders calls out millions of dollars in campaign contributions from the second richest family in America–the Kochs–in exchange for passing a budget that cuts the Kochs’ taxes by over one trillion dollars. Here is a direct video link.
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As the stock market parties like it’s early 2000, a historically reliable indicator of economic weakness, the yield curve, continues to raise alarm in North America. The spread between 2 and 10 -year US Treasury yields reached a new cycle low of .75 this week, and in Canada .51.
As show below in my partner Cory Venable’s chart since 1975, when these spreads reach zero, a recession is underway or close at hand.
In the present extraordinary cycle though, with central banks so aggressively influencing both ultra-low short-term yields, as well as longer term rates with QT (quantitative tapering), the question is whether a classic inversion of the curve will happen this time, or whether something close to zero may be close enough (for hand grenades).
One thing for sure, the timer is running down on this expansion cycle, and it’s never a question of if, but only when, the next recession and bear market arrives. They’re overdue. Who’s prepared?
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We watched the recently released film Tulip Fever last night. The main plot focuses on two pretty sexy love stories, but the more interesting backdrop is the speculative mania that swept Holland in the 1600’s known as Tulip Mania. Here is a direct link to the trailer.
The episode is described as one of the first recorded speculative bubbles in Charles Mackay’s famous, must-read book Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds (1841). The contract prices for bulbs of the then recently introduced tulip, reached extraordinarily high levels before collapsing in February 1637. As shown on the left, at the peak of the madness, one bulb of rare varieties traded for 10x what a skilled craftsman could earn in 10+ years of work. At one point, 12 acres of farm land were pledged for just one bulb. (More recently, it has been argued that the scale of the mania was not as far-reaching as Mackay and others have reported. Yet the frantic trading of rare bulbs at exorbitant prices that ultimately collapsed, is undisputed).
The story is classic human behavior and well worth revisiting. Especially as the world is now in the midst of what will undoubtedly also be recorded as one of the greatest and most damaging financial bubbles in history.
Of course, you could, if starving, eat tulip bulbs. Pieces of paper and digital entries representing ‘ownership’ in grossly inflated securities on the other hand–not even edible.
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Electric autonomous vehicles are a technology that’s time has come for many reasons. Avoiding unnecessary carnage, cost and loss from intoxicated and inattentive drivers is a huge one.
In the meantime, as with drinking and driving, zero social and legal tolerance are necessary to effect behavioral changes. (Send this documentary link to anyone you know who is still fiddling with their phones while driving).
After falling for 35 years, road fatalities have been increasing again for the past two years with the proliferation of ‘smart’ phone use. But for the evolution of safety features like seat belts and airbags, you have to believe that the number of road fatalities today would be higher still. Bikers and pedestrians are not so lucky. And of course, it’s not just fatalities. For injured survivors, their families and taxpayers, there are lifelong costs and suffering.
Publishing accurate facts on the cost and carnage is also critical. Right now, that is not happening. See: Smartphones are killing Americans, but no one is counting.
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The Canadian Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions this morning announced stress testing rules will be expanded to include both uninsured and insured mortgages in Canada.
Starting January 1, 2018, Guideline B-20 requires the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages to be the greater of the five-year benchmark rate published by the Bank of Canada or the contractual mortgage rate +2%.
In addition, federally regulated financial institutions are prohibited from doing additional credit arrangements in any form that circumvents the institution’s maximum loan to value ratio or other limits in its residential mortgage underwriting policy, or any requirements established by law. See today’s OSFI Bulletin release here.
These changes are long overdue and just a few more steps in restoring some prudent lending rules in what has been a decade of wild west credit abuse in Canada. In the longer run these moves are important in shoring up more stable financial foundations for households and the economy. In the near term though, it is another move likely to help mean revert Canadian real estate sales and prices. And the process will not be pain free.
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Canada’s housing market is “ripe for a pretty severe correction” with Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce the most vulnerable, according to Steve Eisman, a fund manager at Neuberger Berman Group LLC. Here is a direct video link.
“In Canada, there’s some pretty good evidence that the housing market is finally starting to turn over,” Eisman said in a Bloomberg TV interview on Monday. “Canada is not going to crash, but it hasn’t had a credit cycle in 25 years. I think they’re about to have one.”
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“An explosive critique about the investment industry: provocative and well worth reading.” Financial Post
“Juggling Dynamite, #1 pick for best new books about money and markets.” Money Sense
“Park manages to not only explain finances well for the average person, she also manages to entertain and educate, while cutting through the clutter of information she knows every investor faces.” Toronto Sun