Ms. Park was the guest Portfolio Manager on BNN Market Lookahead, Thurs July 24, at 9:20 am. The clip will be available for a limited time afterwards on the BNN web site here.
Follow
____________________________
Cory’s Chart Corner
Ms. Park was the guest Portfolio Manager on BNN Market Lookahead, Thurs July 24, at 9:20 am. The clip will be available for a limited time afterwards on the BNN web site here.
Cory’s Chart Corner
;
Watched your interview today. As always very informative. I was wondering if you might explain the move tot he US dollar. You said you moved at 1.04 and I thought why would you not have gone to the Euro at that time.
Also you mentioned, in line with the Nouribini comments from a previous post that you thought US would drop another 20% and Canada would see 10000. I was wondering why given the solid housing values and lack of subprime morgages in Canada,
you were so bearish. I understand that resources may decline but oil is expected to stay over 100 and gold to 1100 (TD). So why a decline to 10K.
Thanks very much – own the book and enjoy the blog
Its true that I do not see our Cdn real estate market as being as over-extended as the US, but the Cdn economy still faces major headwinds over the coming months. We have our own record levels of consumer debt which will hold back our domestic consumption especially as our unemployment rates rise on the export slowdown. On top of that we are in the throws of an international bear market for risk assets around the globe. Bear markets at the end of these big leverage cycles rountinely run -35% +. Canada has never been immune from these downturns, in fact we typically drop more than the broader US market due to our over-concentration in the deep cyclical commodities. As we saw in 2001 Canada does not even need to enter our own actual “recession” in order for our stock market to drop 45%. Also you must note that high oil and gold prices do not necessarily translate into higher stock prices. Note the incredible losses in the Venture exchange over the past many months, and our broader market losses over the past several weeks. Thanks for the note. D
Danielle, would you please explain why real estate market in Canada is not seen as significantly overvalued. Canada's territory approximates that of Europe while our population lingers at just over 30 million. Compare that to relatively small Germany with 82 million or France with 64 million. My research indicates that housing prices in Canada, especially in the more desirable regions of the country, now approach and exceed the European levels. This is certainly not justifiable from the population density point of view. Should we not then anticipate a serious correction, perhaps of the order now experienced south of the border even if for different reasons? After all, it seems to be happening everywhere else.
I think that real estate has been over-valued this cycle in most places in the world. I think the best case scenario for Canada is that we may have flat markets for the next few years as prices adjust down over time. Worst case is that we, like other countries, will experience housing deflation over the next few years. Housing is a 15-year cycle and this one has gone on a long, overly exuberant time. We are due for the correction phase.
I think we are entering a time when people will wake up in their enormous houses and say, “what the hell were we thinking?” Huge, energy inefficient homes will come to be the poster symbols for a period of wanton excess and abuse of our environment and resources in the same way that SUV's are looking now. This will be a wiser, healthier phase than the past few years. The trouble is that a lot of people who are waking up to these ideas now are going to have a difficult time selling their monster mansions. Who will want to buy them? This all sets up for a classic trap of too many sellers and too few buyers driving prices down.
Hello Danielle,
Enjoyed your speaking at The Vancouver Resource and Investment Conference in January, as well as your recent BNN interview. I was, however, a little perplexed over your remarks in the BNN interview about up-coming U.S. dollar strength as well as negative commodity prices over the next several months. Regarding the former, the dollar is fundamentally “dead in the water” for reasons too numerous to go into here. As well, most technicians these days are calling for a near term downward target of 68 on the dollar index. Re the latter, commodities, and in particular gold and silver will soon (September) be coming into their seasonally strongest period of the year and lasting until about December. This is based on the 15 and 34 year seasonality charts for the two metals.
Thanks, and always enjoy reading your blog.
As Canadians we must distinguish between the U$ versus the rest of the world. The Cdn dollar is losing versus the U$, because we are smaller and tied to its fate. And the question is who has a better benchmark currency right now? The Euro (in recession), the Yen (recession), the Pound (yikes!). China is not yet anyway ready to be a benchmark. If the U$ is dead in the water as you say the rest of the world will suffer badly along with it.