Cat out of the bag: “China cannot afford more monetary stimulus”

Pu Yonghao, regional chief investment officer for Asia Pacific at UBS Wealth Management in Hong Kong, talks about China’s economy, government policies, and his investment strategy.Here is a direct link.

This clip is a beauty. First of all the long-always UBS equity manager explains how he has been spreading money around in different coloured jelly beans and hoping for the best over the past couple of years (as always)…and lately he has been increasing his fund’s allocation to US stocks (now at cycle highs) by moving some capital out of places like Chinese stocks (now back near cycle lows–so sell low, buy high–)…but the real money shot starts at 2:26 when the female host asks if he has ever been underweight Chinese stocks (since they are down 8% ytd, 27% over the past 2 years, 63% over the past 6 years) and Mr. Yonghao explains that they had been overweight China (through those declines) until 2 months ago when they decided to go “neutral” which means still holdings stocks there but in a lower amount. It is refreshing though to hear him admit (at 3:43) something that the US Fed and its fans have yet to do: that having pumped its capital brains out trying to force an economic rebound the past 4 years, now “China [and other Central Banks] cannot afford more monetary stimulus” even as corporate margins and export demand are rolling over hard once more. Oh well, better luck next cycle…

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