An excellent article in the UK Telegraph recently points out that it takes real strength of character when one is bearish on financial markets to stand up the perennial parade of long-always cheerleaders that commonly dominate financial commentary. But when you take the vow to be a market realist, you have to be bearish on risk/reward prospects sometimes. No markets can go straight up all the time. And if we can't avoid the nasty parts of the downmarkets, the up ones are unlikely to save us.
“If you are a bear, you must accept that you will always be wrong in polite society, and you will continue to be wrong all the way down to the bottom of recession. That is the cross that bears must bear.” But as Pritchard, and others (like me), have been pointing out for the past few months, the sky has already fallen on the credit bubble in this market cycle, and pretty soon the overwhelming evidence will envelope even the most optimistic bulls. Then it will be time for us bears to turn bullish again, just as everyone else is down in the dumps.
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