US States poised to be the next credit crisis:
“The similarities between the states and the banks are extreme to the extent that states have been spending dramatically and are leveraged dramatically,” she said. “Municipal debt has doubled since 2000, spending has grown way faster than revenues.”
Whitney also offered another warning about banks, saying a sharp dropoff in trading revenue and a double-dip in housing would hammer at fourth-quarter earnings… Whitney reiterated her call that some 80,000 financial services jobs will be lost this year, based on an expected 25 percent sequential decline in equity trading and “low single-digit” returns on equity.
On top of that, she said housing numbers will begin to worsen. The monthly Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller housing report earlier in the day signaled that home prices were flattening but stabilizing; Whitney said that reading is going to get progressively worse.
“This quarter is going to be unique for the banks because this will be the last quarter when they can dodge the credit bullet,” she said. “We think October, after the banks report, you'll see a really ugly Case-Shiller number, which means the fourth quarter is going to be very tough for banks.”
;
