The front end of the earnings season is going to be a mess, because financials report first, says Keith McCullough, Hedgeye Risk Management CEO. It will be all about the guidance, he says, because financial companies are under duress. No matter what happens in Europe, corporate earnings will be ugly.
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Re: oil prices Oil has the potential to fall back to it’s 200 month moving average (like it did in 2009) of 47 dollars. It looks like the wild spikes in oil prices (and commodities) are coming to an end. The blowoff spike in 2008 was like a major earthwquake and now the aftershocks will be smaller and smaller. The China story is settling down a bit which will also calm commodity prices. I Think we will see a much more gradual increase in prices now in the next 10 to 20 years with prices averaging about 65 dollars per barrel for the nest 10 years or more. Also i don’t hear any analysts discussing the damage our oil spike in 2011 has had on the economy. I think it’s a major cause of this coming recession. It takes a few months for the effect of oil over 100 dollars a barrel to filter through the economy and I think we are seeing the effects of this now. It’s not all due to europe or the incompetent US government and Fed.