Adrian Mowat, chief Asian and emerging-market strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co., cites evidence of declining commodity consumption–particularly steel and cement–as evidence of a hard landing now playing in the Chinese economy. Longer term this cool down is healthy for the Chinese economy, but shorter term 2012 is likely to disappoint those expecting accelerating growth and demand from China. “This is a very important message for the commodity bulls and the commodity-based currencies,” he warns. Here is the direct link.
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Evidence for this “”hard landing”” is – IMO – that Australian exports are down some 8%. And Australia is a “”Commodity country”” joined at the hip with China.
Gwynne Dyer on China:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/opinon/2012/03/197_106843.html