This really is starting to look like that old film classic Groundhog Day or is it more like Texas Chainsaw Massacre? Sauved by the soft sounds of reassuring Central bankers, volatility has plunged to complacent lows once more just as price risk has soared. This pattern has coincided with market peaks and unexpected losses thereafter each Spring for the past several years as shown in this chart of the VIX (Volatility index) below. Will this time break trend, and not follow-up with the next crushing blow to unsuspecting investors? Will this time be different? Who feels lucky?
Source: Cory Venable, CMT, Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc.
;
Yes, no doubt that the next few weeks will be very interesting.
In particular, the influence of Bernanke, the ECB, Goldman plus bankers, the Obama election campaign, of keeping the vix suppressed and the markets propped up on hot air will be telling…!!
Thanks for the timely commentary and chart. It seems this move of lower VIX is one of the leading events. You know, a sequence of events that “lead” you to believe that certain outcome is happening. Such events like PIMCO’s call of possible April QE3, recent reversal of treasury’s yields, GS’ recent market call, Mr. B’s attempt to talk up the market, and VIX’ recent move lower in the past week….. etc. Obviously, the “elites” know something we don’t. My 2 cents. JW, Vancouver
Well, in November-December you were saying the market was ready for its next leg down. So who’s to say?