When the headlines are all about what the Federal Reserve will or won’t do this week, we can know for sure that today’s equity market is nothing to do with valuable investment opportunity and everything to do with unreasonable hype and hope. We continue to keep our eye on the foundation rather than the floral arrangements, and so far: global economy weakening, North American bond yields falling, commodities weaker, US dollar holding support, adviser sentiment supremely bullish, the most reckless behavior being touted as genius once more, margin (ab)use at all time high, S&P Shiller PE above 24, a near unanimous preponderance of buy and hold disciples — all confirming large downside destiny for over-valued stock prices.
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