Lakshman Achuthan, Economic Cycle Research Institute, explains why he thinks the U.S. economy is in a recession but we just don’t realize it. Here is a direct video link.
ECRI further offers this chart today comparing the 101,000 new jobs per month reported by the household survey over the past 12 months, as compared with the 194,000 payroll jobs per month estimated by the establishment survey, i.e., over a million fewer jobs over that 12-month period were reported by the US household survey.
As the chart shows, over the past decade, the mean revision to the 12-month moving average of job growth, as measured by the household survey, was only one-twenty-fifth that for payroll jobs. Since their longer-term patterns tend to be similar, the payroll jobs data are more likely to be revised down.
Separately, the household survey, adjusted to the payroll concept, actually shows a decline in employment since the summer.
Bottom line: even ignoring the December jobs data, the trends are worsening, especially for data not subject to major revision.
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