Here’s a point for pause: not one of 72 economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics thinks that the US economy will contract this year. Five years after the last big recession and wipe-out for risk assets (when pundits and advisers were near universally dour) the consensus now sees only further gains ahead. And with stock valuations only higher in 1929 and 2000 they may well be right: what could possibly go wrong from here?
All those hot Initial Public Offerings the past few months are a good sign right? Never mind that 75% of the companies sold to the public have zero to negative earnings, those nice investment bankers wouldn’t steer us wrong, now would they…
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