If the bond market believed the almost unanimously bullish economists today, then capital would not be moving from 5-year Treasuries (yields rising as prices decline) into 30 year Treasuries (yields falling as prices rise), but as shown in the chart below, this is precisely what is happening. As we can see, the same ‘bearish of long-term growth prospects, the Fed won’t be able to raise rates as growth plummets’ warning sign emerged at the stock market peak in both 2000 and 2007…
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