The Canadian dollar has always traded in close correlation with the Canadian stock market. The below chart since 2oo5, plots the TSX Composite (in blue), the loonie (in red) and the resource centric Venture Exchange (in green).
As the global rebound out of the 2009 recession peaked in 2011, commodity prices, manufacturing, exports and the Canadian dollar all began to roll over once more. Stocks followed lower into 2012, before QE mania convinced some participants that central banks and levered traders had rendered the real economy and consumption superfluous to financial market performance.
Such misguided beliefs certainly bought some time for the broad market which was buoyed heavily by financials and REITS into late 2014. Since then the broad market too has wobbled, and is now negative over the last year.
If historical patterns hold though, the still diving loonie and Venture Exchange show the broader TSX where it needs to retrace. The answer so far suggests somewhere in the 8000 range, some 45% below current levels.
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