A slowing global economy with record debt, levered speculators and irrationally valued corporate securities make the world extra vulnerable to negative shocks that inevitably come in the form of trade wars, catastrophic weather events, disasters, war, terrorism and pandemics. Today, we have all of the above in the mix.
Importantly, this is all happening within larger secular forces of falling birth rates, an aging population, mean-reverting debt and corporate profits (lower), tax rates (higher), financialization, central bank powers and globalization (all receding), and creative destruction of status quo systems and beliefs. The world in 2030 is likely to look dramatically different than the world in 2020. Those who can see, anticipate and adapt to the changes afoot can survive and thrive in this period, those who don’t are likely to suffer.
Historian Neil Howe explains present conditions are typical of a ‘fourth turning’ period likely to continue over the next decade. Although ‘winter’ periods are volatile and disruptive, they are absolutely essential as a cleansing period to reset and rejuvenate, recalibrate power and shift resources from the old to the young, from the few to the many, and set the foundation of the next social and economic ‘spring’ that will follow.
Howe summarizes the secular backdrop well in this 15-minute video from 2017–which anticipated some of the events that have materialized since.
The below update interview from November is longer but also worthwhile. Here is a direct video link.
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