The IMF has declared the recession of 2020 the worst since the Great Depression, assuming that the virus goes away in the second half and the economy gets back to growth. This chart shows the IMF’s projections for the G7 economies in this best-case scenario.
In the more likely scenario that the virus abates over the next month on social distancing but then returns in the summer as life tries to resume, these forecasts are probably optimistic. Hoping for the best while preparing for worse outcomes is the prudent course.
“The world has been put in a great lockdown,” the IMF’s chief economist, Gita Gopinath, told reporters. “This is a crisis like no other.” Here is a direct video link.
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