Having recently read several books on the history of pandemics, I am reminded that their recurrence and human behaviour have been consistent throughout the millennium. And it is typical for incumbent politicians and policymakers to downplay spread risks in an effort to maintain power, consumer spending and the economy.
In the end, though, measures needed to end a pandemic are the same today as they have been for centuries: social distancing, masks and hand washing. Avoiding crowded spaces, and especially where
enclosed, is a major element of the social distancing (six feet minimum spacing) needed.
In Japan and other parts of highly populated Asia, these imperatives have long been understood. How many of us have seen travellers wearing masks in airports over the years and wondered why? Now we know. The public service announcement on the left from Japan’s prime minister’s office explains the “Three Cs” of spread and how risks are highest where they overlap.
Unfortunately, for all hoping that things can get back to normal soon, a couple of places where the C’s overlap most are schools and group care centers since it’s very difficult to maintain the constant six feet of spacing needed between children.
A recent UK study looked at nine interventions to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in 41 countries between January and April 2020 and found eight of them were effective but closing schools reduced the R the most (an average of 50%). Other lesser but still effective efforts included: closing non-essential businesses (34%); closing high-risk businesses (26%); limiting gatherings to 10 people or less (28%); and issuing stay-at-home orders (14%).
The “surprisingly large role for schools” the study found may partly explain why the UK did not order a full return to office work this week and why schools and group care centers are unlikely to remain open as usual in many areas. When they do reopen, community spread typically accelerates and the need for lockdown returns.
While the COVID-19 rate of spread has fallen in Canada in recent weeks it is still accelerating around the world, and no one is out of danger.
Half of the last big respiratory outbreaks have come with significant subsequent waves after a summer trough. As soon as the bad weather comes and more people start staying indoors again, a resurgence of COVID-19 along with other flu should be expected (descendant strains of the 1918 influenza still circulate today–it has weakened, but no vaccine has stopped it).
Business, income and social disruptions will cause hardship, but not embracing the “Three C’s” will make the battle longer and casualties worse.
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