John Hussman is one of the most analytically-rigorous fund managers out there. He is widely respected on Wall Street — not just for correctly calling the busts of both the 2001 Dot-com and 2008 housing bubbles AND positioning his clients advantageously in advance — but also for his brilliant commentary & charts that he publishes regularly.
When it comes to recognizing asset bubbles, John is THE expert.
He is also a researcher and expert on the COVID-19 pandemic. Here is a direct video link to part 1.
Here is a direct video link to part 2.
Here is a link to John’s November letter When Bubble Meets Trouble. Here’s a taste:
“My real concern is for passive investors – particularly charitable organizations whose missions would be compromised by a loss of over 50% in their equity investments (and whose missions might be enhanced by avoiding even part of that), and retirees who have barely enough to enjoy their future, but with most of it dependent on the temporarily bloated prices they see printed on a page or flashing on a screen.
Measured from current extremes, I expect that the unwinding of this bubble will drag S&P 500 total returns below Treasury bill returns for least a decade, and possibly two. Yet like other bubbles, I expect that most of the damage will come off the top, resulting in market conditions that are reasonably investable within a year or two. Presently, the valuation measures we find best correlated with actual subsequent market returns are at the most extreme levels in U.S. history. “
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