As asset bubbles mean revert, wake up calls abound

When asset prices halve, financial management starts coming to the fore once more. As shown below, Meta (Facebook) shares are, so far, back to where they were in 2018. Further downside is likely while a global liquidation cycle runs its course.

 

As the frenzy of free money comes to an inevitable end, wake-up calls abound for investors and stock-linked employee compensation alike. Back to some math and reality folks, see Meta employees left to do their own laundry as perks get cut:

Lavish onsite perks may be a thing of the past for employees at Meta, who will now have to do their own laundry due to company cutbacks.

The parent company of Facebook informed its employees it would be cutting down on various perks including free laundry, dry cleaning and valet service, as well as delaying the daily free dinner by half an hour from 6pm to 6.30pm, the New York Times first reported.

The pushed-back dinner service means fewer employees will get to eat on campus, as the company’s last shuttle bus departs the office at 6pm. As a result, employees will now have to decide between a free meal or a free ride home. It also will make it more difficult for employees to stock up on free food to bring home as leftovers.

Another generation is learning the hard way:  it’s not how much income we make or how much stocks go up that matter most in the end; it’s how much net equity we retain over the complete cycles (expansion and contraction) within our lifespan.

The chart below summarizes the S&P 500 total drawdowns during bear markets since 1929 and the duration from peak to trough. The COVID-19 decline over 15 trading days was a crash but not a cyclical bear market in terms of time. Historically, starting valuation and leverage levels set up the depth of bear markets that follow. Ala 1929 and 2000, we began the current downturn from the highest in history for both.

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