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Monthly Archives: June 2023
“Skip”, QT and high for longer–not bullish
A world of bullish commentators asserts that Fed pauses are positive, even though the worst economic and stock market downturns have always come after the Federal Reserve stops tightening. After ten consecutive rate increases and the sharpest rate of change … Continue reading
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Lagging shelter costs mask magnitude of disinflation unfolding
Shelter costs account for a whopping one-third of the US consumer price index (CPI). Ex-shelter, the other two-thirds of CPI components deflated 0.1% month over month in May and were a tame +2.1% year-over-year (close to the official 2% CPI … Continue reading
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Disinflation offers cause for pause
May’s US CPI at 4%–the lowest since March 2021–has increased the prospects of a Fed pause tomorrow; a July hike remains possible. But as I’ve pointed out for months, pauses are not bullish; historically, they’ve preceded the steepest part of … Continue reading
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