About seventy percent of Canadian mortgages were taken out over the last few years with a 5-year fixed term and an ultra-low interest rate that averaged 2.79%. In 2020-2021, some 40% were taken at floating rates that averaged 1.65%. Floating and new fixed-term rates are now above 6%. Eighty-five percent of US home mortgages have a 30-year fixed-term taken out when rates were less than 4% versus new term rates above 7%.
Refinancing/equity withdrawals and moving are off the table for the masses since most can’t qualify for new loans at current rates. No wonder that new mortgage applications are the lowest since 1995. See Mortgage Growth Buckles Under Weight of Rate Hikes in Canada.
The housing market is frozen as the number of people reporting it is a good time to buy a home slipped to lows seen just twice since 1960—the recessions of 1973-74 and 1981.
The trouble is that life happens and staying put is not always possible. As layoffs pick up, more people will want to move to downsize expenses or relocate for new employment.
David reviews the lagged impacts of higher rates well in the segment below.
David Rosenberg, Rosenberg Research, joins ‘Fast Money’ to talk about the U.S. economy, the impact of interest rates, slowing employment growth and more. Here is a direct video link.
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