Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on Talk Digital Network talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here.
After note: This morning, the US March Non-Farm payrolls estimate came in at 303 K, above consensus expectations for 214 K. February was revised down to 270K from 275 K. Household employment increased in March by +523 K vs. +149 K in February. But under the hood, year over year, full-time jobs growth was at a 3-year low, while part-time jobs growth soared to a 2¾-year high. The unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8%, reducing prospects for a June Fed rate cut.
Canada’s unemployment rate jumped to 6.1% in March from 5.8% in February, the highest since October 2021 and sharply above market expectations of 5.9%. That is up 80 basis points from the post-pandemic low of 5.3% in 2022 and 40 basis points above pre-pandemic levels. Layoffs were up 40% year-over-year, and hours worked declined by .3% from February. This all strengthens the argument for a June BOC rate cut, and Canadian bonds are rising to start the day.
The divergence between the US and Canadian economies is powering the US dollar higher, leaping .66% against the Loonie to 1.3631, the highest since last November. Stocks are rising to start the day. It will be interesting to see how long US equity jubilance can last amid higher for longer US rates.
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