In the fifteen years between 1907 and 1922, horses went from providing 95% of all private vehicle miles travelled on American roads to less than 20% (see chart below). But since cars travel a far greater distance per year than horse-drawn wagons for a fraction of the cost per mile, t
he fate of the horse as a form of transport was sealed from the first day that mass-produced automobiles rolled off the factory lines.
Similar disruptions are now unfolding in transportation, energy, food production, and labour. And not enough people are connecting the dots.
For an excellent big picture, read the latest overview from Rethinkx: This Time, We are the Horses: The Disruption of Labour by Humanoid Robots. The whole article is worth reading. Here are some highlights:
…In other disruptions throughout history, we have seen incumbent interests turn to their governments for protection against the new technologies. These protections can take the form of subsidies and handouts to the old industries, regulations and prohibitions that impede new industries built upon the new technologies, and bailouts when the old industry inevitably collapses.
Almost invariably, the benefits of these protections accrue only to the privileged few who own and control the incumbent interests, rather than to the individuals and communities who lose their livelihoods because of the disruption.
To avoid making this same mistake, which could prove catastrophic at the scale of the entire global labor market, we must rethink the relationships between a nation’s population and its economic output, and get ready to transform society itself.
The disruption of labor is inevitable, and together with the disruptions of energy, transportation, and food, it could herald a new age of unprecedented freedom and prosperity. But only if we are willing to experiment, to learn, and to transcend the limits of the past – starting right now.
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