Macro updates for dog days of summer 2025

Economist Lacy Hunt offers a sobering look at the long-term economic forces shaping the U.S. outlook—and why inflation might already be in retreat, even as the Federal Reserve stays cautious. He argues that we’re in the midst of a disinflationary trend driven by excessive debt, declining velocity of money, and the structural weakening of global demand. The headlines may still focus on price spikes and strong consumer spending, but underneath, the economy is quietly slowing. Here is a direct video link.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO and chief strategist at QI Research, returns to Monetary Matters to update listeners on her read of the economic cycle and credit markets. She shares her thesis that the U.S. economy entered recession in early 2024, exited it, and is now entering another recession in a process similar to the double dip recession of 1980-1981. Recorded on June 26, 2025. Here is a direct video link.