Yesterday we got a sell on the US dollar. After our buy last November, we were up 21% on the currency while holding US T-Bills, so we were quite content to take the profit.
The US dollar was incredibly over-bought the past few weeks. It was well due for a correction of some duration. Whether this is an interim pull back or a longer term reversal remains to be seen. Currency cycles tend to play out over years not weeks, so we shall watch the longer term trends here with interest.
While the US dollar has broken down this week, its inverse benefactors–other currencies and commodities have staged an erratic rally in world markets. Maybe this will continue for a few weeks and months. Maybe it will fizzle out today under the weight of the negative US Q3 GDP news. Maybe this will be like November 1973 when the market rallied 13% into March before breaking down to a second consecutive annual loss of -26% in 1974. Time will tell. We know that tech and financials should lead the next bull cycle. Commodities and energy do not lead a recovery, they are late cycle performers. So we will need some further breadth and commitment from other sectors before we buy into the bullish case here.
In the meantime however, we remain open to the idea of some buying at present levels, even if only for a trade over the next few months. Before committing our hard saved capital though, we will be watching for some further follow through and institutional participation first. After you gentlemen…
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With regard to investment at this time in precious metals, it has been speculated that the COMEX gold futures for December delivery will go into default. We have in Canada 3 precious metal funds, Central Fund of Canada CEF.A, Central Goldtrust GTU.UN and BMG Bullion Fund BMG100. How would a hypothetical default in the COMEX affect such funds since they hold physical precious metals in Canadian bank vaults?
Hi Danielle, a fan of your blog. Truly appreciate your advice. Thanks.
Roubini was interviewd on BNN late last week. He said he is a passive long term investor with his own money. Will have to advise him of your book. He also went on to say that the commercial loan market recovery is the most important indicator for the revival of the economy. Henk
good call on USD. i sold mine around 82. keep up with the good work 🙂
nice post