Danielle, bad earnings for Q4 is fully priced in. This market isn't going to give the skeptics a chance to get in on a W bottom.
Even within the context of a secular bear, we could rally to spx 1200 easily which is another 30% higher from here.
I predict this market forces you in to keep up at a most inopportune time.
You talk about sell discipline but what about buy discipline?
Is chasing the market higher after missing a 30% to 40% move off the bottom a disciplined approach to buying?
You seem self assured and smug. Perhaps you can disclose your returns for 2008, and prior years. Did you suffer a big loss in '08? Danielle made her clients money in a dreadfull year.
You are free to post but I will continue to follow Danielle's postings. Brett
My portfolio was up over 60% last year. I trade solely for myself and am accountable to nobody.
In 2007, my portfolio was only up 2% as I saw the credit bubble burst coming but was a tad off on timing.
I'm a contrarian. When I saw a vix of 90, that flashed a big time buy signal to me. I haven' t sold yet because I can see a lot more buying power coming into the market in the form of portfolio rebalancing and under-invested portfolio managers.
I used to be on the investment committee of a large pension fund. I know how they operate. They usually have a fairly strict stock/bond allocation of say 60/40 and they rebalance quarterly. After the nasty Q4 we just had in the equity market and the parabolic rise in treasuries, they will meet over the next few weeks and decide to sell lots of bonds and buy lots of stock to get their portfolios back to their target asset allocation.
This is hundreds of billions. Plus we will see people come back to the equity market as they see the gains and realize they are getting left behind earning 1% in a money market fund.
This is psychology and emotions. I plan to sell in about 8 weeks and I'm quite certain that my gain will be 40%+ in a matter of 4 months or less.
To me, it's all quite clear. The Fed and US Treasury have everything backstopped and the printing press on full blast. Volatility will get wrung out of this market as it continues to relentlessly grind higher. Every dip will be bought and will be short lived.
Is the secular bear over? Absolutely not. But a 90 vix marked a very durable intermediate term bottom and this cyclical bull will be much more powerful than anyone thinks.
I am very happy for those that have developed their own rule set and management discipline that yields them success. There are many different approaches one can follow. Those that are comfortable with their own approach should not feel the need to lash out or insult others who follow a different discipline. When one is comfortable with his or her own methodology, there should be no threat when another follows a different strategy. We all have freedom to execute as we see best. We do not all follow the same investment constraints or mandates. It is my experience that those with true wisdom and who have had great success over long periods of time, do not waste their precious time trying to convince others of how smart and successful they are.
Nobody is lashing out or insulting you. You hold yourself out as an expert with a successful track record. You promote your thoughts on TV and accept money for professional management.
I'd simply like to learn the details on your equity market buy discipline.
Great interview as usual. This W concept, or it isn't over yet – idea is not to popular. Around the xmas table, I mentioned the idea that meager earnings might send us back into a tail spin in the spring and for a plunge in August. The aghast reactions showed me, that the average middle-class guy believes this is over. Therefore it probably is for the next few months and your W concept is probably correct.
If spx goes to 1200 easily I will sell all and every share I have and do not buy any for long long time. I am afraid I will be not alone in this and meet fierce competition from other folks:)
You may think you are “just” asking but Ms. Parke may perceive you are bullying her. She doens't have to give any information she chooses not to.
However, Danielle we do appreciate it when you provide us with incites on the board.
Also, do you do any public speaking the Simcoe County area? It would be nice to hear you lecture.
You mentioned that the market has priced in bad Q4 earnings. Just wondering why you believe the market has also not also priced in the pension fund rebalancing, that you mention. It prices in all known information. Conditions change, the future is unknown, unpredictable, which makes beating the general market consistantly, extremely difficult.
“Sell in about 8 weeks”, “Every dip will be bought and will be short lived”. Just short term speculation/gambling, in my opinion, and we all know how that ends over time, but wish you the best of luck.
There is a big difference between information and actual buy demand.
Pension rebalancing means that a massive share demand is coming. An earnings report doesn't directly impact buying or selling of the shares. It's a psychological event.
Nobody “knows” exactly the end game. It's important to gauge the buy/sell demand over the short/intermediate term and try to be one step ahead of the herd.
Anyone who claims to know the endgame and is entrenched into that position is setting themselves up for disaster.
“An explosive critique about the investment industry: provocative and well worth reading.”
Financial Post
“Juggling Dynamite, #1 pick for best new books about money and markets.”
Money Sense
“Park manages to not only explain finances well for the average person, she also manages to entertain and educate while cutting through the clutter of information she knows every investor faces.”
Toronto Sun
;
Danielle, bad earnings for Q4 is fully priced in. This market isn't going to give the skeptics a chance to get in on a W bottom.
Even within the context of a secular bear, we could rally to spx 1200 easily which is another 30% higher from here.
I predict this market forces you in to keep up at a most inopportune time.
You talk about sell discipline but what about buy discipline?
Is chasing the market higher after missing a 30% to 40% move off the bottom a disciplined approach to buying?
You seem self assured and smug. Perhaps you can disclose your returns for 2008, and prior years. Did you suffer a big loss in '08? Danielle made her clients money in a dreadfull year.
You are free to post but I will continue to follow Danielle's postings. Brett
My portfolio was up over 60% last year. I trade solely for myself and am accountable to nobody.
In 2007, my portfolio was only up 2% as I saw the credit bubble burst coming but was a tad off on timing.
I'm a contrarian. When I saw a vix of 90, that flashed a big time buy signal to me. I haven' t sold yet because I can see a lot more buying power coming into the market in the form of portfolio rebalancing and under-invested portfolio managers.
I used to be on the investment committee of a large pension fund. I know how they operate. They usually have a fairly strict stock/bond allocation of say 60/40 and they rebalance quarterly. After the nasty Q4 we just had in the equity market and the parabolic rise in treasuries, they will meet over the next few weeks and decide to sell lots of bonds and buy lots of stock to get their portfolios back to their target asset allocation.
This is hundreds of billions. Plus we will see people come back to the equity market as they see the gains and realize they are getting left behind earning 1% in a money market fund.
This is psychology and emotions. I plan to sell in about 8 weeks and I'm quite certain that my gain will be 40%+ in a matter of 4 months or less.
To me, it's all quite clear. The Fed and US Treasury have everything backstopped and the printing press on full blast. Volatility will get wrung out of this market as it continues to relentlessly grind higher. Every dip will be bought and will be short lived.
Is the secular bear over? Absolutely not. But a 90 vix marked a very durable intermediate term bottom and this cyclical bull will be much more powerful than anyone thinks.
Please be happy with your gains and do not gloat.
We could be in a 'L' market like Japan previously.
Danielle, maybe you can explain why a delayed buy entry into the equity market is a lower risk than a buy at maximum fear?
I am very happy for those that have developed their own rule set and management discipline that yields them success. There are many different approaches one can follow. Those that are comfortable with their own approach should not feel the need to lash out or insult others who follow a different discipline. When one is comfortable with his or her own methodology, there should be no threat when another follows a different strategy. We all have freedom to execute as we see best. We do not all follow the same investment constraints or mandates. It is my experience that those with true wisdom and who have had great success over long periods of time, do not waste their precious time trying to convince others of how smart and successful they are.
Nobody is lashing out or insulting you. You hold yourself out as an expert with a successful track record. You promote your thoughts on TV and accept money for professional management.
I'd simply like to learn the details on your equity market buy discipline.
Great interview as usual. This W concept, or it isn't over yet – idea is not to popular. Around the xmas table, I mentioned the idea that meager earnings might send us back into a tail spin in the spring and for a plunge in August. The aghast reactions showed me, that the average middle-class guy believes this is over. Therefore it probably is for the next few months and your W concept is probably correct.
If spx goes to 1200 easily I will sell all and every share I have and do not buy any for long long time. I am afraid I will be not alone in this and meet fierce competition from other folks:)
You may think you are “just” asking but Ms. Parke may perceive you are bullying her. She doens't have to give any information she chooses not to.
However, Danielle we do appreciate it when you provide us with incites on the board.
Also, do you do any public speaking the Simcoe County area? It would be nice to hear you lecture.
SQ, I do try to speak in the area when asked and time permits, nothing local booked so far for 2009. We will post a date if any do come up.
You mentioned that the market has priced in bad Q4 earnings. Just wondering why you believe the market has also not also priced in the pension fund rebalancing, that you mention. It prices in all known information. Conditions change, the future is unknown, unpredictable, which makes beating the general market consistantly, extremely difficult.
“Sell in about 8 weeks”, “Every dip will be bought and will be short lived”. Just short term speculation/gambling, in my opinion, and we all know how that ends over time, but wish you the best of luck.
There is a big difference between information and actual buy demand.
Pension rebalancing means that a massive share demand is coming. An earnings report doesn't directly impact buying or selling of the shares. It's a psychological event.
Nobody “knows” exactly the end game. It's important to gauge the buy/sell demand over the short/intermediate term and try to be one step ahead of the herd.
Anyone who claims to know the endgame and is entrenched into that position is setting themselves up for disaster.