The financial sales machine loves young articulate analysts who are smart and look good on camera but have little real cycle experience to impede perpetual optimism on corporate securities.
Those of us who have lived through a few decades on the front line tend to have a more risk-conscious view–that is, at least, those who aren’t willfully blind and/or sociopaths. Near the end of their sell-side careers, it is common for people to become more focused on their legacy and to appreciate the lasting impacts of loss to real people; Guggenheim’s Scott Minerd seems to have graduated into this category.
Then there are the talking head hosts who are paid by the sponsors to ‘sell’ buy ideas to the masses at all times. The clip below is a classic combination of all of these characters. Learning opportunity here.
Guggenheim Partners Global CIO Scott Minerd said in a letter to clients that the elevated prices in financial markets show a “cognitive dissonance” from economic reality that has created a dangerous bubble among debt assets.
Liquidity from the Federal Reserve and other central banks and increased demand for bonds from ETFs are masking the problems in the market, Minerd said, and the coronavirus outbreak is an example of an economic shock that could prick the bubble. The money manager said GDP growth in China in the first quarter could be as bad as negative 6%.
“This will eventually end badly. I have never in my career seen anything as crazy as what’s going on right now,” Minerd said. Here is a direct video link.
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