Hoisington Investment Management’s fourth-quarter 2021 Review and Outlook is now available on their website here. Always worth a mull.
Bottom line: Global growth is slowing in 2022 under record debt, poor demographics, negative real yields and wages that undermine spending and productivity-enhancing investment. China is looking a lot like Japan did in the 1980s. With emerging economies under increasing stress, Treasuries and U.S. dollars remain relative safe havens that should attract global inflows in 2022:
“Due to poor economic conditions in major overseas economies, 10- and 30-year government bond yields in Japan, Germany, France and many other European countries are much lower than in the United States. Foreign investors will continue to be attracted to long-term U.S Treasury bond yields. Investment in Treasury bonds should also have further appeal to domestic investors, as economic growth disappoints and inflation recedes in 2022.”
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