Lakshman Achuthan and Anirvan Banerji are co-founders of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which determines recession dates for 22 economies around the world. Their latest findings are summarized in Don’t be fololed! A recession really is coming:
Recession concerns in the US are widespread these days. Yet, some economists argue that the strength of the labor market — as well as household balance sheets — will keep the economy strong enough to avoid a recession.
We disagree. Despite the relatively robust job growth we’ve been seeing, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI), which we co-founded, has been predicting recession since last spring, and it remains our expectation that the US economy will enter a recession this year…
We saw a mirror image of today’s economy in the spring and summer of 2008, when the Great Recession, which started in December of 2007, was already underway.
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