Twenty-two US states have seen the three-month moving average of their unemployment rate less the low of the past 12 months rise 50 basis points or more (a ‘recession’ indicator known as the Sahm rule). Since at least 1978, there has never been a time when more than 20 states have seen this degree of unemployment increase without being in a recession.
Another historically inciteful indicator is that once the three-month average of the national unemployment rate has risen 0.3 percentage points (30 bps), the economy has always been either in or about to enter a recession. That, too, was triggered in 2024. Is this time different? DDB discusses this and more in the segment below.
Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research, discusses the state of the labor market in the U.S., inflation, and the Fed’s next likely move in response to current macroeconomic forces. Here is a direct video link.
;
