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As we have seen repeatedly, when governments are backstopping financial intermediaries lenders naturally become less diligent and more focused on profits than on risks, on quantity rather than quality of loans. This has been the Canadian experience in spades over … Continue reading →

Of course, BMO being a corporate underwriting/investment sales franchise, was not forecasting a drop in crude before it happened, and they are still calling for a rebound, but…the comments here are starting to acknowledge the gravity of a sustained oil … Continue reading →

The more historically realistic US GDPNow model forecast for Q3 2015 real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) was 1.0 percent on August 6 (green dot below) compared with the still much higher 2.6 to 3.6% range of consensus forecasts … Continue reading →