Category Archives: Main Page

Speculative builds adding to deflationary pressure in real estate

Posted on January 9, 2024 by Danielle Park

During the supply disruptions of the pandemic, stockpiling became an international obsession and warehouse space was in high demand. That’s reversing now. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the US had 5.2% of warehouse space empty versus 4.7% in 2019. … Continue reading →

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Recession alarm with no false positives

Posted on January 8, 2024 by Danielle Park

There has never been an incidence in history where the US Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) had a six-month average growth rate sub -4.5%, and the US economy did not enter an NBER-defined recession. The six-month smoothed LEI growth … Continue reading →

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Financial cycle behavior is consistent

Posted on January 5, 2024 by Danielle Park

In June 1999, the US Fed began an 11-month rate hiking cycle that took the overnight rate from 4.75 to 6.5% by May 2000. Amid tech-mania-inspired irrational exuberance, the S&P 500 hit 1527 by March 2000, sold off into the … Continue reading →

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