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In both directions. h/t @LanceRoberts
Lance Roberts @LanceRobertsThis is really pretty incredible.
US household holdings of equities and mutual funds reached a record 278% of disposable personal income in the second quarter of 2026, up from just 29% in 1982, amplifying the stock market’s influence on consumer spending and economic activity._________________________
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Employment cycling down
Unemployment spikes as recessions begin, but before that, early warning signs are fewer job openings and a shorter work week. The latest December jobs report showed spreading cyclical weakness. Year over year, Indeed job postings fell 15% in 2023. See … Continue reading
Outlook weakening under equity market optimsim
January US Empire Manufacturing reading this morning was -43.7, much worse than the -5 estimated and much weaker than during the 2008 financial crisis/great recession. January Empire Manufacturing Index plunged to -43.7 vs. -5 est. & -14.5 prior; interestingly, index … Continue reading
Rate cuts come as demand-driven economy slows
The Bank of Canada’s (BOC’s) Business Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter of 2023 found that 40% of Canadian companies were experiencing a slowdown in sales. Indicators of future sales – including order books, advance bookings, and sales inquiries – … Continue reading
