Auto sector fraud: widespread, profitable business model

As we thought likely, revelations of emissions fraud are now spreading beyond Volkswagen.  Fiat Chrysler shares were down more than 13% today as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency accused the company of also using software to allow excess diesel emissions in about 104,000 vehicles.

In addition, Germany authorities told journalists last week that several manufacturers – three VW group marques (VW, Audi, Porsche) plus Mercedes-Benz and Opel, Vauxhall’s German counterpart, are to effect a voluntary recall in order to update the software in their cars to reduce their NOx emissions.

The German transport minister, Alexander Dobrindt, has since confirmed that the government’s official investigation into the VW emissions scandal has revealed “irregularities” in cars from 11 other manufacturers: Renault, Alfa Romeo, Chevrolet, Dacia, Fiat, Hyundai, Jaguar, Jeep, Land Rover, Nissan and Suzuki.  In other words, most brands.  See:  Diesel recall, which cars are effected.

At the same time we learn today that Takata Corp. is expected as soon as Friday to plead guilty to criminal wrongdoing and pay roughly $1 billion to resolve a U.S. Justice Department probe of the Japanese company’s rupture-prone air bags which have killed and injured many.  See:  Takata to plead guilty to criminal wrong-doing.

There is no word yet on whether the Justice Department plans to bring any criminal cases against Takata employees alongside the company’s expected guilty plea. The Wall Street Journal earlier reported that prosecutors were weighing pursuing company employees who had knowledge of the defects and cover-up.

Individual actors certainly should be prosecuted.  Corporations do not run themselves, if we do not prosecute and penalize the individuals directing the crimes (including disgorging their personal income and profits connected with the fraud) then we are living in a state anarchy and should expect lawlessness to spread.

On the upside, as we pointed out last year, the customer betrayal in emissions fraud, makes the case for electric vehicles all the more.  Why settle for lowering emissions by unknown amounts, when we can chose to eliminate them completely.

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Market cycle not lining up in Trump’s favor

Trump’s policies will help the U.S. economy, but they won’t be enough to save stocks long term, Faber said.  Here is a direct video link.

Here we can see (as mentioned by Faber) that under the much celebrated headline advances, the ratio of new 52 week highs to new lows for stocks in the S&P 500 has been rolling over since 2014. Not bullish.
S&P internals Dec 30 2016
The “higher diving” board for risk markets from here is built on record debt, corporate profit margins that peaked in 2014, and historic highs in asset valuations as Trump takes office (the opposite of when Reagan took power as shown below).

Trump and Reaganomics
In the end, we all must devise strategies to navigate the cycles we inherit.  Oblivious, high leverage and dumb luck can work well during secular bull cycles, at least for a while.  But during secular bear periods like today, humility, realism and risk management rules are key to survival over the full market cycle. Like driving fast on black ice, hubris and overconfidence tend to be suicidal in these conditions.

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Six Volkswagen executives indicted for dieselgate fraud–at last

Volkswagen admits massive fraud, says it’s sorry and pays a fine. Now prosecution turns to the directing minds of the fraud, at long last.  This era of criminal actors being allowed to keep their profits and hide behind their corporations, must end.

A U.S. grand jury on Wednesday indicted six current and former executives of Volkswagen AG for their alleged part in the company’s U.S. emissions fraud as the Justice Department’s investigation shifts from bringing the German car maker to account to prosecuting individual executives. Here is a direct video link.

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