Juggling Dynamite

A weaker currency generally makes for cheaper exports, so one might assume that the falling Yuan over the last year would be good for Chinese sales.  But that would be wrong.  In September Chinese exports contracted 10% year over year, even as the Yuan fell almost 8% in trade-weighted terms.  This chart of the CYB since 2008, shows that the Yuan has been weakening (along with global sales and corporate earnings) since 2014.

Of course this is not just China-specific. Competing exporters like South Korea and Taiwan have reported disappointing numbers as well. This is about a broad global downturn in consumption and investment.  See: China Trade: another weak signal for global economy

And the slump is unlikely to be a short or shallow.  After 20 years of reckless credit pumping, the world is now working through an epic payback/write-down/write-off phase that is likely to be secular (more than one business cycle) in duration.

Enligtened people will understand the reasons we have earned this period and adapt their employment, investment and business plans to prosper in the new climate. Waiting for the good old throw-away days of endless spending, mal-investment and under-saving to return soon, is a bad plan.

Neil Shearing, chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, discussed the implications for emerging markets and by extension commodity producers on Bloomberg.  Here is a direct video link.

As I and others have been warning for a few years now, (here’s a list of just our most recent articles), defined benefit pensions have been planned to fail through years of under-funding by workers and employers alike. Few have been paying attention to math, and when some of us laid it out in plain terms as managers and advisors, we were fired or not hired, discounted and ignored.

As reckless QE policies herded capital into income-paying securities over the past 6 years, yields have plunged and capital risks have soared.  Now with 10,000 baby boomers turning 65 every day for the next 12 years, withdrawals are accelerating and Ponzi-like retirement schemes are coming up shorter by the week.  Evidently an actual cash crunch, that reduces or stops payments, is needed before people are forced to consider reforms. This is starting to happen on the edges in public pensions.  See:  $1.6 mill tests tiny town and “bulletproof” public pension plans.

It is also starting to dawn in the rare world of the few remaining defined pension plans in the private sector.  As Wells Fargo CEO John Stumpf finally retires amid scandal, he is reported to be leaving with a $134 million retirement fund estimated to pay him $3.6 million a year if he bases his planning on living to age 100 before investment income or inflation are taken into account.

Meanwhile banks are making less profit spread in their operations and less returns inside their pension plans. The value of long-term promises these banks have made to plan members—their liabilities— has therefore been increasing as yields fall.  When the liabilities are worth more than the plan assets, the funding deficit is deducted from regulatory capital, hurting bank balance sheets that are already under pressure.  See:  Ultra-low rates hurt banks in more ways than one.

The same math is screaming for attention in individual retirement savings plans. A few people have recognized reality and geared themselves to spend less and save longer in order to amass the greater store of savings that low yields dictate.  Many others though have so far opted to continue believing the propaganda from the investment sales crowd that promises big gains for high fee, high risk products, if they just buy and hold.

Eventually, and especially as over-valued assets fall in price once more, truth will demand mathematical reconciliation.  Unfortunately, by then it may be too late to avert lasting pain for many individuals.  As always, financial genius is before the fall.

Usual profanity warning in effect here. But good points raised in this clip. In this time of surreal madness, calling bull on nonsense is at least cathartic. Here is a direct video link.

I wish I could agree though, that Clinton  and her entourage are authentic leaders.  This is a very sad race. Thinking people everywhere have to focus on what changes are needed to turn this broken system around.  A world of young people are looking for inspiration and coming up empty. Neither of the US Presidential contenders are trustworthy leaders.

Haitian-Born Author and Journalist Dady Chery on The Clinton Foundation: https://t.co/dG7WyYSUP2 via @HuffPostBlog

— Danielle Park (@kdaniellepark) October 13, 2016