Juggling Dynamite

Matthew Parry, senior oil analyst at IEA, explains what changed the view of the IEA on the surplus in global oil markets and discusses slowing demand in China and record output from OPEC.  Here is a direct audio link.

Ryan Chilcote reports on the IEA numbers and ramifications for global markets while the young JPMorgan Global Market Strategist (sell side) offers a typical (comical) bullish view.

The surplus in global oil markets will last for longer than previously thought, persisting into late 2017, as demand growth slumps and supply proves resilient, the International Energy Agency said. World oil stockpiles will continue to accumulate through 2017, a fourth consecutive year of oversupply, according to the IEA. Consumption growth sagged to a two-year low in the third quarter as demand faltered in China and India, while record output from OPEC’s Gulf members is compounding the glut, said the agency, which just last month saw the market returning to equilibrium this year. Here is a direct video link.

Since 2007, Central banks and governments have been like reckless dam operators indiscriminately flooding good money after bad through global asset markets. All of this has been added to the debt tab and diverted capital from substantive investment in things needed to support productivity and efficiency in human life. The US national debt has nearly doubled in the past 8 years, along with staggering leaps in corporate, auto, student and all other types of debt, in pretty much every country in the world. While trillions are wasted on gimmicks, the real world weakens through an ongoing investment drought.  This is bringing an abrupt end to the most recent era of globalization as explained by Desai on Bloomberg this morning.

Meghnad Desai, emeritus professor of economics at London School of Economics, discusses the global turn against globalization and free trade agreements. Here is a direct video link.

As vapid in content as Trump generally is, on the topic of using debt for infrastructure spending, rather than financial gimmicks, he is actually quite lucid. See this clip.

Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump weighs in on the negative impact of low rates on the market, and the doubling of the nation’s debt.Here is a direct video link.

While market cycles, valuations and careful discipline drive financial results over time, stock promoters and soothsayers promising to pick ‘winners’ attract gullible followers the world over. ‘Twas ever thus. This example from China is classic human behavior.

Li Daxiao has become one of China’s most popular stock prognosticators, through the colorful tips and videos he distributes on social media. Here is a direct video link.