What wealth effect? asset gains nulled by income losses

The nervous laughter by Dachille in the below clip is uncomfortable and humbled but honest. For finance sponsored television, he makes some surprisingly candid admissions about how central bank policies are gutting the efforts of individual savers, pensions, life insurers and other critical institutions to be self-sustaining.  Although many keep hoping that asset managers are magicians (and the least worthy ones talk as if they are) the truth is they are not, and the last 10 years of financial policy madness has been a travesty of the commons. The sum effects are not wealth creating, but anti-wealth:  as yields have plunged from 5%+ to less than 2%, cash flows tank and the savings needed to fund future liabilities has risen by 70%.  No free lunch and no magic wealth effect. Time to face math.

The idea of central banks creating wealth by boosting asset values through low or even negative interest rates may prove costly for retiring Americans and those saving for their golden years, AIG Chief Investment Officer Doug Dachille told CNBC on Tuesday.

Dachille, head of the insurer’s massive $351 billion investment portfolio, said “all savers” are being negatively affected by easy monetary policies around the globe.

“All this reduction in interest rates, while it’s certainly been good for the appreciation of the asset side of everybody’s balance sheet, unfortunately it’s increased the value of the liability side of the balance sheet,” he said on “Squawk Box.”  Here is a direct video link.

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Helicopter money and other absurd ideas

Monetary policies run dry…

High Frequency Economics Chief Carl Weinberg discusses so-called helicopter money. Pimco Executive Vice President Tony Crescenzi also speaks on “Bloomberg Surveillance.” Here is a direct video link.

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Subprime auto: debt crisis in the making

The subprime auto industry boomed over the past 6 years on a familiar foundation of lax lending and packaging sketchy loans as investments–similar to the 2008 sub-prime mortgage crisis. For more see: “They had created this remarkable system for taking every last dime from their customers.“.

Auto lenders can steer vulnerable people into crushing debt. Keegan-Michael Key and Bob Balaban help John Oliver show exactly how.  Here is a direct video link. (Profanity warning).

Meanwhile, as shown in the below updated chart from the St Louis Fed, the delinquency rate on commercial and industrial loans (in blue) has been spiking over the past year and is now approaching the peak rate seen in the 2008 crisis (recessions in grey bars), while high yield bond yields (in red) like stocks, remain priced for the fantasy of endless calm and economic prosperity.  In reality, yield spreads always rise to catch up with delinquency rates again, as euphoric junk bond and stock prices sink.

Default cycle 2016

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