Juggling Dynamite

Still stinging from the blame and lawsuits directed its way in the 2008 crisis, S&P Global Ratings agency is trying to get out in front of the default tsunami now rising in corporate debt markets around the world.

Already north of $50 trillion in 2015, corporate debt globally is expected to increase another 50% over the next 4 years driven by expansive monetary policies from central banks and value-blind buyers gobbling up risky assets. Here is the graphic courtesy of the Financial Times.

Here is the bottom line:  Credit quality has been deteriorating since 2015 with 2/5ths of non-financial corporations in S&P’s sample already highly leveraged and growth in corporate borrowing now outpacing economic growth.

Never mind Brexit, S&P warns this is setting up to be “Crexit” where current holders look to dump falling assets all at once:

“A worst-case scenario would be a series of major negative surprises sparking a crisis of confidence around the globe. These unforeseen events could quickly destabilize the market, pushing investors and lenders to exit riskier positions (‘Crexit’ scenario). If mishandled, this could result in credit growth collapsing as it did during the global financial crisis in 2009.”

As the global economy gears down through the dog days of summer, the US dollar is bid and commodities wobbling once more. This chart of the Canadian dollar versus the greenback suggests a similar pattern may be in the offing in the second half (2H) of 2016 as we saw last year. We have been expecting weakness in risk assets to resume and will soon find out if that is the case.  The loonie is a useful barometer to watch.

9+ years of on-going financial crisis in the world, has fueled justified criticism and outrage against a runaway investment banking sector. Political candidates everywhere are being asked to take a stand and explain what they will do to break up the banking cartel that was enabled to continue and grow fatter still after 2008.

Thanks to the efforts of many writers, academics and legal experts, as well as high profile reform advocates like Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders, financial reform is set up to be a key issue of the 2016 US Presidential campaign.

Last night’s inclusion in the Republican platform of a call to restore division between commercial and investment banking, throws down a gauntlet to the Democrats to do likewise. Will they be pressured into a similar commitment? Might this force Clinton to pick Warren (who has already proposed a bipartisan Return to Glass Steagall Act in 2013) as her VP?  What party will the banks back then?  See  The Republican Platform’s surprise revival of Glass-Stegall legislation:

The last-minute decision to include in the Republican platform a call to restore the firewall between commercial and investment banking comes as a surprise, because Donald Trump himself has never publicly addressed or endorsed such a reform in his year-long presidential run.

Trump did once say at a debate in New Hampshire, “nobody knows banking better than I do,” but a review of the transcripts of all 12 Republican debates shows that he never endorsed restoring Glass-Steagall, legislation first passed in 1933. Websitesdevoted to detailing Trump’s positions find no record of him having any opinion on the Depression-era law. The issuespages of Trump’s presidential website steer clear of anything related to banks or finance.

…the platforms of both parties support a piece of legislation that neither party has had much interest in advancing for the past several years.”

Change moves in mysterious ways.  Just as Ferdinand Percora’s public exposure of unethical practices and business models in the banking sector proved a final catalyst for the break ups legislated in 1933, this political campaign could serve as another much-needed tipping point.