Juggling Dynamite

Naysayers and oil proponents have wildly underestimated the electric car evolution. This evolution is happening.  Believe it or not.  See: Here’s how electric cars will cause the next oil crisis.  Cause? or just continue the crisis?

With all good technologies, there comes a time when buying the alternative no longer makes sense. Think smartphones in the past decade, color TVs in the 1970s, or even gasoline cars in the early 20th century. Predicting the timing of these shifts is difficult, but when it happens, the whole world changes.

…But here’s what we know: In the next few years, Tesla, Chevy, and Nissan plan to start selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000 range. Other carmakers and tech companies are investing billions on dozens of new models. By 2020, some of these will cost less and perform better than their gasoline counterparts. The aim would be to match the success of Tesla’s Model S, which now outsells its competitors in the large luxury class in the U.S. The question then is how much oil demand will these cars displace? And when will the reduced demand be enough to tip the scales and cause the next oil crisis?

For anyone that has not yet read Robert Frank’s important book “The high beta rich”, now is another great time to do so.  It is critical to understand how a focus on inflating asset prices at all costs has worked to undermine financial stability, our economy, government revenues and long term investment prospects.  It also helps to explain why political upheaval is spreading around the world.  While people often assume that the “1%” are financially stable, the truth is that ‘easy come’ income is often wasted on elaborate expenditures and mal-investment, leaving them with massive debts and little savings when asset bubbles collapse. And they always do collapse in the end.

This story about Houston is a classic example see,  Mansion sales and discount dining: oil rout hits Houston rich:

The unfinished home of former oil executive Kolja Rockov is seen at 12 Crestwood Drive in Houston, Texas February 18, 2016. REUTERS/Terry Wade

Twenty months into the worst oil price crash since the 1980s, well-heeled residents of the world’s oil capital are among the hardest hit largely because tanking energy firm shares make up much of oil and gas executives’ compensation.

…To be sure, oil executives are not alone in feeling the pain. Many blue collar jobs in oilfield equipment production have disappeared. So have thousands of middle management jobs in oil exploration and production. A regular Uber customer is likely at some point to ride with a former energy industry professional.

“It pays for the mortgage,” said Matthew Clemonds, who once did mapping for pipeline companies and now works for the ride-sharing company.

Watched Spotlight last night. Dark material but recent history and a very inspiring story that reminds about the importance of personal integrity and diligence in standing up to systemic injustice and abuse of power. Fantastic performances by a great ensemble cast.

Spotlight, from writer-director Tom McCarthy, focuses on the Boston Globe’s groundbreaking 2002 series on the widespread sexual abuse committed by priests that scarred generations of New England Catholics. It is a story that one member of the Vatican’s commission knows well: Cardinal Seán O’Malley, who was chosen to lead the Boston Archdiocese after the Globe’s massive exposé, was appointed by Pope Francis to head the Vatican’s commission. Vatican Radio has praised the movie. Here is a direct video link.

This month Spotlight was screened for the Vatican commission on sex abuse, composed of priests and abuse survivors assembled in Rome to find ways to prevent the type of crimes depicted in the film.  Getting truth out in the open is a huge step necessary for healing and improvement.

“Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it’s the only thing that ever has.” –Margaret Mead