Juggling Dynamite

Another gift from lax lending and a decade of low rates: an oversupply of rentals in many cities.  See, Purpose-built residential rentals picking up steam in Canada:   “As pension funds and other big investors seek new, reliable income streams, purpose-build rental is at levels not seen in two decades.”  And no, this is not just in Alberta.

In Waterloo, Ontario there are 32,000 student housing units, with a further 7,000 planned and just 31,000 students looking for off-campus housing. (Hat tip:  Ben Rabidoux).  Bad for owners, but lower rents for tenants, and likely to last for some time.

Joyce Klaver, who works for property management firm Waterloo Off-Campus Housing, says she’s seen the same effects from the sudden “glut” of student housing.

“It’s gone from mom-and-pop organizations to the conglomerates,” she said.

With more buildings going up and more landlords getting into the game, Klaver expects landlords to not only ask for less money, but start offering eight-month lease terms in a bid to ensure their properties are rented.”  Here is a direct video link.

Get your head around these numbers:  Canada’s average national home price rose to $470k in January, and is over $1,000,000 in hot spots like Toronto and Vancouver.

In Canada you can buy a $1,000,000 home with just 75K down and a $925,000 mortgage.  The $925K loan is then insured by Canadian taxpayers (via CMHC). And this is after the government tightened mortgage rules this month.  See:  New mortgage rules for homes over 500K go into effect.

At 3% on a 25 year amortization, a 925K home loan costs ‘just’ $4,378 a month in after tax income, without any other provision for utilities, taxes, maintenance, repairs or any other debt payments or living costs of any kind.   In Canada, that means one would need to earn   about $70,000 a year of before tax income just to pay the mortgage payments alone.  And that’s at the lowest interest rates in history.

At even 5%, the same mortgage would require a 22% increase in payments to $5,380 a month or about 90K a year in before tax income.

Sound reasonable to anyone?  Think boomers will have an easy time finding able buyers for their scores of $1m+ properties?

Having grown large during the credit/commodities/property bubble (2005-15), governments are now looking (needing) to raise taxes in every way possible as revenues decline.  We should expect a particular focus on raising property tax revenues since non-property owners are generally broke.  More of this to come:

The Ontario government is threatening to go as far back as 1989 to target commercial entities, including two of Canada’s largest companies, that have been avoiding land-transfer taxes through what is now a disputed legal loophole.  See this  direct video link.

Naysayers and oil proponents have wildly underestimated the electric car evolution. This evolution is happening.  Believe it or not.  See: Here’s how electric cars will cause the next oil crisis.  Cause? or just continue the crisis?

With all good technologies, there comes a time when buying the alternative no longer makes sense. Think smartphones in the past decade, color TVs in the 1970s, or even gasoline cars in the early 20th century. Predicting the timing of these shifts is difficult, but when it happens, the whole world changes.

…But here’s what we know: In the next few years, Tesla, Chevy, and Nissan plan to start selling long-range electric cars in the $30,000 range. Other carmakers and tech companies are investing billions on dozens of new models. By 2020, some of these will cost less and perform better than their gasoline counterparts. The aim would be to match the success of Tesla’s Model S, which now outsells its competitors in the large luxury class in the U.S. The question then is how much oil demand will these cars displace? And when will the reduced demand be enough to tip the scales and cause the next oil crisis?