‘Accidental landlords’ surging in Calgary

With the majority of baby boomers under-saved and struggling to earn stable income for retirement, a very common plan is to downsize expensive real estate in order to raise cash. Indeed, with the leading edge of boomers just about to turn 70, the swell of interested sellers is just getting started. The question is who can afford to buy or even rent at these prices?

The real estate market in Calgary has left some people without a lot of choice, with many forced to pull their property off the sellers’ market and try to recoup their costs by renting.

It’s an option that has seen exponential growth, particularly in higher-end homes. Here is a direct video link.

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Economic limbo contest continues: how low can they go?

While sell-side automatons explain why this morning’s big miss in payrolls is no big deal and the economic expansion (already one of the longest–although weakest–in history) is about to accelerate every day now, we offer a couple of big picture charts for sober consideration.  US factory orders here since 1990, comparing the downturn year to date (far right) with readings over the last 3 business cycles.

New orders Oct 2 2016

And this one of US and German 10 year government bond yields over the past 6 years.
US and German bond yields

Tightly correlated for many years, the yields of both countries rejected inflationary expectations since 2011 and fell throughout economic ‘recovery’.  After a short rebound when the US Fed rolled out QE3 experiments in 2012 (blue dot), yields resumed their downward trend in 2013.

Yawning at the inflation forecasts of bankers everywhere, the bond market continues to price for further economic weakness and deflationary pressures ahead.  With the US 10-year breaking below 2% again this morning, US yields still have significant downside if they are to rejoin Germany’s in the months ahead. How low can they go?  Commodity prices are answering:  a lot lower for longer than most imagine possible.

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Further thoughts on the emissions scandal

Emissions fraud is hitting highly leveraged VW car dealers like a ton of bricks. Not only is there now a deserved public stigma against the cars, but VW’s ‘Stop Sales Orders’ have forced dealers to pull previously popular models from their lots, tying up frozen inventory as the car values plunge.  Thanks to the surge in ‘easy’ loans and lease terms the past 7 years, dealers were encouraged to build out lavish showrooms and operations to meet demand that always was unsustainable.  As cash flow dries up, financial vulnerability glares on all sides.  Law suits are just beginning, see:  Volkswagen dealers on the ropes.

Most dealerships have a low threshold for adversity; liquidity and cash positions are affected very quickly. For example, having $200,000.00 in cash tied up in ten to twelve recalled vehicles that can’t be sold can cripple a dealership.

Dealers that rely on debt (floor plan) to finance their operations have even less ability to withstand hardship because payments must be made on the balance of the unsold inventory. A dealership should not have any more money tied-up in inventory than is absolutely necessary. This is why dealers sell vehicles to other dealers, even if the sale is at a loss. Doing so eases cash considerations. Excess inventory levels have negative consequences on cash flow and, consequently, on the ability to meet the cash demands of an ongoing business [ie., pay employees, sales people, vendors and service providers, taxes etc.]

And there are much broader insights to be noted here as well.  See,  Volkswagen scandal a sorry sign of the times:

“Illegally rigging vehicles to pass emissions tests hurts everyone, but legal loopholes create similar problems. Just look at SUVs…SUVs are classified as “light-duty trucks” and are subject to less strict emissions standards than cars. Yet, most people treat them the same as cars.

This creates incentives for manufacturers to produce more heavy vehicles or even to design cars as trucks, such as Chrysler’s PT Cruiser. According to the Economist, “As vehicles above 3.8 tonnes were long exempted from the American regulation, manufacturers started producing enormous vehicles such as the Hummer to avoid any fuel-economy rules.”

Even with fuel-efficiency improvements, vehicle emissions have more than doubled since 1970 and will increase as demand rises in countries like China, India and Brazil, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Studies show that because fuel efficiency makes it less expensive to drive, people drive more.”

Emission’s Gate provides just another teaching/learning, behavior-evolving epiphany for thinking people. Perfect for an election year in North America where the fossil fuel economy is already imploding. All the reasons and needs and technological advancements to evolve to electric vehicles and renewable energy grids, have all come together at last.

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