The broker community is as always, predictable and harmful to client savings. The papers are full of the industry’s usual self-serving slop this morning. This chart courtesy of Cory Venable captures the truth about the typical “advice” cycle well.
After 4 years of over-confidence about the powers of central bankers, market psychology is now swinging from believing in magic to recognizing downside risks to previous irrational expectations. That doesn’t make the sell off to date irrational, not yet anyway.
Realizing that you have made classic errors and massively overpaid for assets is a rational epiphany when it finally hits. Then selling before prices plunge further can also be a rational response to avert financial catastrophe. This is especially true where buyers used margin or levered bets on the way up and are now hemorrhaging capital on the way down. Selling to stem bleeding becomes simply pragmatic and necessary in such cases.
As a result, those who were indiscriminate buyers as prices rose, become indiscriminate sellers as prices fall. This swing is what finally opens up value for the few discriminate buyers–who know value when they see it because they have done critical analysis in advance–as others are liquidating.
For a visual reminder of how investor sentiment moves, see the Emotional Cycle for typical investors as well as the inverse cycle for those using a valuation discipline– as we do at my firm Venable Park.
In order to survive and thrive over full market cycles one has to have the valuation discipline that others lack and have the fortitude to exercise buy and sell decisions accordingly. Howard Marks explains these concepts in this clip.
Howard Marks, co-chairman at Oaktree Capital Group, discusses his latest investor letter and examines markets, China, and investing. Here is a direct video link.
Noting that introverts and outsiders were heroes in ‘The Big Short’ (the film version of which was today nominated for 5 Oscars including Best Film and Best Director) a client suggested this TED talk and Cain’s book “Quiet: The power of introverts in a world that can’t stop talking”. In our hectic, digitally connected world, Cain makes many good points about the power of reflective, quiet, independent thinking. Especially rare in the world of finance…where in the end, followers routinely end up slaughtered.
In a culture where being social and outgoing are prized above all else, it can be difficult, even shameful, to be an introvert. But, as Susan Cain argues in this passionate talk, introverts bring extraordinary talents and abilities to the world, and should be encouraged and celebrated. Here is a direct video link.
