Over the last year, more than 200 real estate developments in Canada became insolvent. Andrew Chang explains why, at a time of high demand for housing, a growing number of projects are falling through. Here is a direct video link.
One after another, consumer-driven sectors are warning of tumbling demand amid still inflated prices and the highest real interest rates in 17 years. Although mortgage rates have fallen year-to-date, auto and home sales have continued to slump, with buying conditions the worst in decades (U of Michigan Home buying conditions below since 2000, courtesy of The Daily Shot). 
Typically, people prioritize auto payments where possible. The spike in prime and subprime loans now 60 days delinquent is the worst since 2008 (below since 2006).
Dollar General shares fell 30% this week as the company joined a long line of retailers warning that consumers are in retreat. Sales of seasonal, home and apparel fell in the quarter, and although traffic rose, shoppers spent less per trip.
Companies are relying more on promotions and price cuts, hurting profits. As shown below since 1995, the outsized gap between elevated profit margins and plunging sales growth typically resolves with profit margins joining down to sales trends during recessions.
Meanwhile, the savings of households are the most risk-exposed in decades with record concentration in heinously over-valued equity funds and products. This is going to leave a mark for years to come.
Markets pricing in rate cuts for this year — DiMartino Booth and Charles Payne of FBN break it down. Here is a direct video link.
Happy Labour Day Weekend!!
In this episode, Dr. Hunt explains that non-farm payrolls overshot by five standard errors, making it the worst miss since a 9 standard one for 2009, during the GFC recession, and marking another bureaucratic failure. According to Dr. Hunt, the reported overshoot of 818,000 was based on an internal seasonally adjusted series, but based on the nonseasonal adjusted data, the overshoot was actually 915,000. Dr. Hunt explains that the non-farm job miss means that productivity will be revised up while unit labor costs will be revised down. Personal income and Gross Domestic Income will be revised downward, and the personal saving rate will be reduced from its already very depressed level of 3.5%. Here is a direct video link.
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