Juggling Dynamite

Twenty-two US states have seen the three-month moving average of their unemployment rate less the low of the past 12 months rise 50 basis points or more (a ‘recession’ indicator known as the Sahm rule). Since at least 1978, there has never been a time when more than 20 states have seen this degree of unemployment increase without being in a recession.

Another historically inciteful indicator is that once the three-month average of the national unemployment rate has risen 0.3 percentage points (30 bps), the economy has always been either in or about to enter a recession. That, too, was triggered in 2024. Is this time different? DDB discusses this and more in the segment below.

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO of QI Research, discusses the state of the labor market in the U.S., inflation, and the Fed’s next likely move in response to current macroeconomic forces. Here is a direct video link.

The new Federal Budget released yesterday has significant implications for capital assets held by individuals and corporations. See: Feds raise capital gains inclusion rate to 66.6% starting June 25.

The taxable portion increases to two-thirds from one-half on capital gains above $250,000 realized annually by individuals and all capital gains realized by corporations and trusts.

This will undoubtedly incentivize some asset sales before June 25 and prompt consideration of whether some capital assets, like real estate and equities presently held in corporations, can be transferred to individual owners for greater tax efficiency. Accountants will be busy.

The latest government initiative to try and keep home prices at unaffordable levels is to extend the term of debt amortization to 30 years from 25 for government-insured mortgages (available where property prices are $1 million or less). Making people debt slaves for even longer does little to help the housing unaffordability and debt weighing on Canada today. Lower shelter prices and less debt are the way back to greater stability.

The solution to debt is not more debt, says Doug Hoyes, Co-founder of Hoyes, Michalos & Associates. Here is a direct video link.

Andrew Chang lays out the worse-for-buyers-math in this segment.

The federal government is allowing longer mortgage repayment periods for first-time buyers with insured mortgages on newly built homes. Andrew Chang explores the pros and cons of 30-year amortization vs. the previous 25-year rule for prospective homeowners. CORRECTION: At 1:38 in this video, we miscalculated that 20% of $500,000 is $125,000. It’s $100,000. It has been edited out for clarity. Here is a direct video link.