The truth about the ongoing financial crisis

Excellent article today from All The President’s Bankers’, author, Nomi Prins:

“The recent spike in global political-financial volatility that was temporarily soothed by ECB covered bond buying reveals another crack in the six-year-old throw-money-at-the-banks strategies of politicians and central bankers. The premise of using banks as credit portals to transport public funds from the government to citizens is as inefficient as it is not happening. The power elite may exude belabored moans about slow growth and rising inequality in speeches and press releases, but they continue to find ways to provide liquidity, sustenance and comfort to financial institutions, not to populations.

The very fact – that without excessive artificial stimulation or the promise of it – more hell breaks loose – is one that government heads neither admit, nor appear to discuss. But the truth is that the global financial system has already failed. Big banks have been propped up, and their capital bases rejuvenated, by various means of external intervention, not their own business models.”

For important historical perspective on similar mistakes that led to past financial panics as well as the steps that finally rebooted the system in the 1930’s, read the entire article: see: Why the financial and political system failed, and why stability matters:

“After the Crash of 1929, markets rallied, and then lost 90% of their value. Liquidity froze. Credit for the masses was as unavailable, as was real money. The combined will of President FDR and the key bankers of the day worked to bolster people’s confidence in the system that had crushed them – by reforming it, by making the biggest banks smaller, by separating bet-taking arms from those in which people could store, and borrow money from, safely. Political and financial leaderships collaboratively ushered in the reform measures of the Glass-Steagall Act. As I note in my most recent book, All the Presidents’ Bankers, this Act was not merely a piece of legislation passed in spirited bi-partisan fashion, but it was also a means to stabilize a system for participants at the top, middle and bottom of it. Stability itself was the political and financial goal.”

At little domestic footnote to all of this, as Canadians have foolishly rung up their household debt to financially suicidal levels the past 6 years since the 2008 recession, in the past year, four of the big 6 bank CEO’s–RBC, TD, BNS and CIBC– have opted to get while the going’s good and cash out to retirement in their 50’s.

The little people listening to the same banks for their investment advice of course…all told to hold and ‘stay the course’.

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The Known Universe

Lest we forget our place in the universe. A little perspective to start the day. Here is a direct video link.

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Oil services sector beckons the TSX broad market

With the US oil services sector index (OSX) already in a bear market, down 24% since June so far, and falling, thoughtful minds might wonder what if anything this sector’s performance might portend for the broader stock market.  While the S&P 500 is about 10% weighted in energy, the Canadian TSX 60 Index is more than twice that at 23% in energy. This overweight helps explain why the TSX Index has historically been closely correlated with price moves in the oil service sector. The chart below shows price movements for both since 2004.

Oil services vs TSX since 2004

In a closer view below, we note the now ominous gap that has developed since June between the diving OSX and the still modest 7% decline for the Canadian broad market. A re-coupling to historical correlations, would see the TSX composite decline at least a further 17% from current levels, to around 12,000, or the level it first reached a decade ago. And that’s if it gets off luckier than previous secular bear declines which typically have registered -50%. Buy and hope?
Oil services vs TSX 2014

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