Juggling Dynamite

We have Randy’s book “The Last Lecture” on our coffee table and I spent some time reading through it again yesterday.  For me it is a useful “pull your head out of butt” tool, when needed.

For those who haven’t seen it, Randy gave his last lecture live at Carnegie Mellon on September 18, 2007.  He died 10 months later on July 25, 2008. But his big picture words of wisdom live on, in print and on Youtube. Happy Monday.

Here is a direct video link to the full 1:17 presentation. Here is a shortened 10 minute version he did on Oprah.

Here was a 41 minute special Diane Sawyer did with Randy in April 2008.

Danielle was a guest on This Week in Money with Jim Goddard talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets.  She was the second guest on the show so her segment can be found by advancing the play bar to 21:45 to begin.  Here is a direct audio link.

Those betting on the demise of the US dollar have been repeatedly frustrated over the past 6 years.

After falling from the tech bubble peak in 2000 all the way to the debt bubble bust in 2008, the US dollar Index (as against a basket of the world’s 6 major currencies) bottomed in late 2008, retested downside support with the Fed’s reckless QE policies in 2010 and 2011 and has been rising gradually ever since.  Winning the least ugly contest among global participants may seem like a hollow victory, but currency trades are actually the most dominant force in capital markets today and this latest break out in the greenback (shown below) may well have a few more years to run as the US slowly (painfully!) rebuilds the coffers following 15 years of self-destructive policies.

Not good news for commodities and precious metals priced in US dollars.  See: Iron Bound for Rough Ride, as the commodity boom continues to reverse.  Also a headwind for US large cap companies who harvest some 50% of earnings from overseas sales.  While the greenback was falling, the translation back to US income statements boosted sales numbers.  The currency rebound is now having an equal and opposite effect.