Real estate leading economic stall

Some illuminating facts on the ground in this segment.

Starwood Capital Group CEO Barry Sternlicht says regional banks have a “giant skeleton in the closet” when it comes to real estate loans. Speaking on Bloomberg Television, Sternlicht also discusses the state of the real estate market and his support for presidential candidate Nikki Haley. Here is a direct video link.

See more on the broader implications in The time bomb lurking in all those empty office buildings.

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Danielle on This Week in Money

Danielle was a guest with Jim Goddard on This Week in Money, talking about recent developments in the world economy and markets. You can listen to an audio clip of the segment here starting at 8:59 on the playbar.

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China exporting deflation to the world

Consumer prices in the world’s second-largest economy fell 0.8% in January compared with a year earlier–the most significant deflation in over a decade.

With demand weak at home and inventories piling up, Chinese producers have the incentive to dump excess goods onto world markets, and they are.

Chinese export prices have dropped steadily since late 2022 and were -8.4% year-over-year in December (customs data, shown on the left).

China is the largest trading partner for many countries and tends to lead price trends in other exporters that compete for business. See Cheap Chinese Goods are Becoming a Costly Problem. Exhibit A: Hong Kong.

The opposite of what happened during the pandemic, deflating prices and weak demand for finished goods tend to reduce corporate profits.

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