The compounding costs of sanctioned gambling

Empirical research suggests that expanded gambling access—particularly low-friction, online sports betting—has been associated with measurable increases in consumer financial distress, including higher bankruptcy filings in U.S. states following legalization.

The evidence is strongest where gambling becomes more accessible and continuous, rather than episodic (e.g., mobile wagering versus destination casinos).

At the individual level, a robust body of clinical and public-health research in both the U.S. and Canada links problem gambling to sharply elevated risks of depression, financial collapse, suicide, family trauma and violence.

A growing body of behavioural finance and public-health research suggests that gambling activity can bleed into financial market behaviour, particularly where trading becomes fast, leveraged, and game-like.

Studies show that individuals who engage in gambling are more likely to trade frequently, concentrate risk, pursue lottery-like payoffs, and persist in loss-chasing behaviours when investing.

The expansion of zero-commission trading, options access, crypto assets, and 24-hour markets has lowered the psychological barrier between wagering and investing, blurring the distinction for some participants. While long-term capital allocation and disciplined portfolio management remain fundamentally different from gambling, periods of speculative excess often coincide with an influx of behaviorally driven capital whose decision-making resembles gambling more than investing, amplifying volatility, mispricing, and eventual drawdowns.

In June 2022, Canada’s Cullen Commission concluded that weak oversight of casinos in British Columbia enabled widespread money laundering by organized crime, with clear links to broader financial crime and asset inflation, including ballooning home prices.

The findings highlighted regulatory failure, institutional incentives that discouraged enforcement, and the risks that arise when high-cash industries expand faster than supervision.

The inquiry stands as one of the most comprehensive confirmations in Canada that gambling venues, when inadequately controlled, can become conduits for crime and financial corruption.

A large majority of the Commission’s 101 recommendations have not yet been fully implemented. Major structural reforms, including a dedicated provincial Anti-money laundering (AML) commissioner, broader regulatory and reporting frameworks, and enhanced federal-provincial cooperation, remain in progress or under debate rather than fully enacted. In the meantime, online gambling has become ubiquitous.

The segments below discuss New Yorker reporter Danny Funt’s new book, “Everybody Loses: the tumultous rise of American sports gambling.”

Here is a direct audio link.

Here is a direct video link.

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Grantham reflects on six decades of investing

Far-reaching, worthwhile discussion in this segment.

On episode 226 of The Compound and Friends, ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Michael Batnick⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ and ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Downtown Josh Brown⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠ are joined by Jeremy Grantham to discuss: stock market bubbles, the ups and downs of managing money, how the wealth divide has grown so wide, the future of clean energy tech, and much more! Here is a direct video link.

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Investor emotional cycle is alive and well

Madness and mayhem are the order of the day, while consumer and business sentiment are dour, and for-sale signs are popping up like measles.

Meanwhile, equity markets are priced for nirvana, and participants are the most long of all time. Households and nonprofit organizations entered 2026 with a record near half of their financial assets held in equities—the most ever (shown below since 1952).

Professional fund managers are positioned with the highest equity exposure and growth expectations since the market top in 2021 (shown below since 2001, courtesy of The Daily Shot).

At the same time, global managers are holding the least downside protection hedges since the 2021 market top (below since 2008).

Fund manager cash levels at 3.2% are the lowest on record since at least 1999 (shown below). The bear market is in dry powder; cash on hand has never been so low.

As real estate investors have been discovering, when sellers wish/need to sell en masse at high prices, there are few willing and able buyers to be found. Spring listings are looking to start early this year. See, BMO economist says real estate has entered a ‘slow grind’ toward affordability:

Andre Kutyan, broker with Harvey Kalles Real Estate, began photographing the pools and landscaping of some houses last fall in preparation for hitting the market early in the New Year, when they may still be buried under a layer of snow.

He plans to start launching new listings in mid-January.

“I’m curious to see how early the spring market will start this year,” he says.

Agents are also watching to see how much supply arrives on the resale market.

Many are hearing from baby boomers who have been holding onto their large homes with hopes of a recovery in prices, but have now decided to move ahead with a sale.

Some homeowners with high-priced properties are also choosing to downsize their investment as economic uncertainty continues.

“You can only wait so long,” he [BMO economist, Robert Kavcic] says of the sellers. “There’s a cost to waiting, too.”

The attitude among buyers at the moment appears to be a reverse FOMO, or “fear of missing out,” he says.

This is all classic. Humans are wired to self-sabotage in financial matters, and it takes discipline and forethought to resist groupthink. Opportunity arrives for patient buyers holding cash who’ve prepared their buy targets in advance.

The investor emotional cycle has not been repealed, and we now have emojis to help express it.

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