As we come to the 5th anniversary of the Lehman collapse that forced a recognition of the financial crisis and a necessary repricing of market assets, prudence requires us to acknowledge how little has changed or mended since. See Mohamed El-Erian’s excellent review here: Lehman’s Morbid Legacy
Stress signs in financial markets and currencies are everywhere today. Since nothing was fixed coming out of the last global crisis in 2008, there is every reason to suspect that another spectacular meltdown may well be in the making. While some leading emerging markets and economically sensitive sectors have already dropped significantly–several near their 2008-09 lows–it remains likely that they may see further selling ahead as the most highly levered participants since 2007 liquidate babies and bathwater along with other still extremely over-valued markets and sectors. Diversification among different risk assets is unlikely to provide meaningful capital protection in this climate. On the upside, those who can weather this next storm and maintain cash at the ready, are likely to get the third fantastic re-entry (ala 2003 and 2009) point since this secular bear began in 2000.
Stephen Roach of Yale University rings the alarm on emerging markets and explains why he thinks the global economy could be in the early stages of a crisis. “Large current account deficits make emerging markets vulnerable,” he says. Here is a direct video link.
Robert Shiller, Case-Shiller Index co-founder, breaks down the latest numbers on housing. Here is a direct video link.
A stat worth contemplating: the interest cost of a 30-year fixed mortgage in the US has now increased by 40% since last year.
