Juggling Dynamite

For those trying to better understand how and why market cycles move, historical perspective is critical. Doug Short offers an excellent primer in his latest: Secular Bull and Bear Markets Contrary to what the risk-sellers will tell us, secular bear markets have been the norm at least 40% of the time during the past 140 years as captured in this excellent chart:

Buying and holding at every price during secular bear cycles has been catastrophic for capital and for the finite humans who suffer repeated cycles of loss. All of which prompts a critical question that every person with savings to protect must decide for themselves:

“Historically, regression to trend often means overshooting to the other side. The latest monthly average of daily closes is 67% above trend after having fallen only 11% below trend in March of 2009. Previous bottoms were considerably further below trend. Will the March 2009 bottom be different?”

Credit revulsion is the rational response to the over-indulgence of the credit bubble. But moving away from credit means lower demand and weaker growth than most economists, central banks and politicians are currently forecasting.

The dichotomy between European regulators’ push for “safer” banks, while also wanting them to lend more. Here is a direct link.

The S&P 500 disconnected from real demand last fall on QE. Sustainable? This time different?

Source: Chart source Bloomberg via zerohedge