Juggling Dynamite

The Second Amendment to the United States Constitution was adopted along with the Bill of Rights on December 15, 1791. The right to bear arms was based partially on the right to bear arms in English common-law and was envisioned as supporting the rights of self-defense, resistance to oppression, and the civic duty to act in defense of the state. In 1791 however, guns were slow to fire, single shot-style weapons. Modern firearms can kill hundreds in minutes. Crazy people can do more damage in seconds today than they could have ever personally inflicted in weeks of effort 200 years ago. Moreover concepts of human rights necessarily change over time in a civil society: the ideas of protected rights for women and children, people of color, disability, religion and sexual orientation continue to evolve today. If laws are to serve and support the ever-changing society they were drafted for, then common sense requires once widely accepted ideas to be open for judicial review.

Since the majority of Americans seem to understand and want evolution in the area of intelligent gun control, and their captured congress seems unable to serve them, then a review and revision of the second amendment makes abundant sense. See: The Second Amendment might need some revisions for some intelligent discussion.

Cyclical sectors like gold companies (XGD below) and many commodities are now in cyclical bear market territory (down more than 20% from their highs), but the interest sensitives (like financials, REITS and utilities) still have considerable downside potential in this cycle. Unfortunately for guaranteed deposit-refugees who have run to “defensive” stocks looking for yield, bear market selling cycles generally spread across the sectors before they complete. With the 2009 cycle lows a potential test, the next few months could offer great opportunity. But only for those who can first avoid significant capital losses.

Chart source: Cory Venable, CMT, Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc.

And in case anyone is wondering what a full market cycle within a secular bear looks like (or why I always say timing the market cycle well is everything to do with success or failure), this chart of the Canadian Venture Exchange offers a reminder: a four year round trip from the low in 2009 to the same price level in 2013.

Chart source: Cory Venable, CMT, Venable Park Investment Counsel Inc.

Bart Chilton, a commissioner at the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, talks about commodities trades and market regulations. Here is a direct link.